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Two scenarios for the apartment market at the end of the year

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If the epidemic is controlled in October, house prices will increase by 5% over the same period, in case the epidemic lasts, house prices will still increase by 4%.

At the recent seminar on apartments opened for sale during the recent pandemic, Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam offered two cautious scenarios for the apartment market at the end of 2021 after 5 months of experiencing a prolonged epidemic. long.

In the first scenario, the epidemic is controlled in October, the supply of new apartments for sale this year will reach about 13,000 units in Ho Chi Minh City and 17,000 units in Hanoi, down 29% and 5% respectively compared to the first scenario. with 2020. The average asking price of the whole market is expected to increase by about 5% over the same period.

In the second scenario, the disease control must last until the end of this year, the number of apartments sold is only about 8,400 units in Ho Chi Minh City and 14,500 units in Hanoi, down 54% and 19% respectively compared to the previous year. . The average apartment price in the whole market is expected to increase by about 4%.

Housing market in the South of Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Quynh Tran

According to CBRE senior director, the apartment supply at the end of the year is likely to be only one-quarter to one-fifth of the golden period of the housing market. Despite a decrease in supply, the market’s demand may be affected as both homebuyers and investors will consider cautiously due to financial difficulties during the fourth epidemic.

According to Ms. Dung, before the pandemic, the apartment market in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi recorded an average of 30,000-32,000 new apartments for sale each year, some years skyrocketing to 35,000 units. In the low period of the market before the pandemic broke out, the new supply also fluctuated at 20,000-25,000 units.

With both scenarios above, whether the epidemic is controlled in October or unpredictable developments and lasts until the end of 2021, the selling price of houses on the primary market (first-time investors) will still increase 4- 4 5% over the same period. CBRE’s forecast for house price growth is more conservative than that of many other survey units.

Specifically, the online apartment market data published by PropertyGuru Vietnam Company until August 2021, the asking price of apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City increased by 8-9% over the same period. Meanwhile, Savills said that in Ho Chi Minh City, there are about 40% of primary projects with prices climbing in the first 6 months of 2021, the number of supply increases is quite small compared to the total basket of goods. This unit also confirmed that during the fourth outbreak, the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market recorded a price increase of over 10% in some mid-end and affordable apartment projects.

Trung Tin

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